yes. absolutely. >> you are so bad. closing bell is coming up next. today on the closing bell, opening a door on the rally, positive news on home sales, offsets concerns over europe hitting the floor. exclusive interview with the head of the nyse on our new set to talk everything from low trading volume to the outlook for exchange consolidation. live from post 9 on the floor of the new york stock exchange, this is the final and most important hour of the trading day. same time, same channel, different set. welcome, everybody, i'm bill griffin here on our brand new 17,000 pounds of love set on the floor of the new york stock exchange. >> yeah it is great to be here. i'm maria bartiromo. thank you for joining us today, folks, a big show for you here as we are debuting our new set.

>> it has been two years in the planning. >> yeah. >> and i -- kudos to the whole gang behind the scenes who have done such a wonderful job and i know you are going to enjoy t let's face it, it is an historic moment for us as a news organization to be broadcasting from the floor with this established set on the new york stock exchange. >> i think for the traders, it is a built bittersweet because when you consider the fact that this was a major post, post 9, with so many companies trading here over the years, and now it is actually a tv set, which is extraordinary. and who would have guessed 20 years ago when we first got down here that actually, this main post, post 9, would turn into a tv set. >> don't date yourself that much. i'm with the pioneer, of course, the very first reporter ever to report from the floor of the new york stock exchange, 1995. >> yes, it was. >> she was just out of junior high at the time. we have come far. >> pioneering because a lot of people were a little uneasy with it, weren't sure, do you want a camera on the floor of the

exchange, do you not? is this a boys' club? the thinking then was very open minded. dick grasso really was behind that today, who better to speak to than ceo of nyse who okayed this, coming up with us in a few minutes. talk about this new set with duncan but going to be talking about the changes that the exchange has gone through, the globalization, the liquidity and of course, the volume. >> a great evolution in the way stocks are traded these days and we are going to get to all of that coming one duncan. first though, a look at the markets. >> the market sinking to start the trading day today. we have got fractional moves, dow industrials, rebounding from 100-point drop, following more signs of life in the housing market. blue chip index, the final stretch, trying to close above 13,000 for the very first time since may of '08. s & p 500 highest interday level since june of '08. one of the other factors in today's come back, the price of

oil. watching it creep higher recently. today, light sweet crude oil down more than $1 to settle at $108.56 a barrel. calming some concerns, but anything above $100 a barrel is a worried note for the economy as it is expected to make people rein in their spending. we are going to be talking about the economic recovery and what this level of oil is doing for that recovery, bill. >> let's see where we stand at the moment. you will see this selloff on the open this morning, the dow was down 100 points on the open and then it just gradually came back. pisani will tell us why in a minute here. you can see up 40 points, enough to put us some for the tabably above the 13,000 level and just in the last few seconds, literally, we have seen this little minirally here, so we are at 13,000020 on the industrial of a ran. the nasdaq in comeback mode today. composite index up 10 points, 2974, s & p 500, similar chart,

up 1371, five points. >> watching volume as well. on the light side. besides cnbc's new set on the stock exchange, see what else is buzzing about, bob pisani, our man on the floor. bob, another big reversal. >> say how happy we are to have this set. viewers don't know, two years in the making to get the technology this is cutting-edge technology there. we have always been a part of the floor but now we are literally becoming part of the floor. >> yeah. >> i think that's been a very big day for all of us. you can say about stock trading it is -- the volume's too low, you can say the price swings are anemic, but the absolute truth is every day the market goes up, hasn't anybody noticed? 9:45, 10:00 every day the market kind of reverses? opens the downside and then reverses. i have been waiting 22 years to be the weatherman for the stock market, folks, be with me as i walk over here and show what you is going on. maria is absolutely right. hit our lows today, bring it up here, lows for the day, down

100. highs, up 35. i will get to the barrow metric pressure in a moment, folks, don't go away with that. here is what is important. right about here, we got pending home sales for january. of course, those are contracts, not signing, a little better than expected, still too small, still too slow but better than expected. then right about here, the german parliament approves the greek bailout plan. yes, it was contentious but not quite as contentious a lot of people thought. here is what is important. maria hit it, the oil situation. once we had oil move to the downside, stocks also recovered, put up the full screen, i want to show you something, if you would have told me in the beginning of the year oil would be up 10% so far this year around the steam would be up almost as much with gold up 13%, i would have said, nah, that doesn't sound right to me. oil up 10% would have been a lot more pressure on the stock market. some are saying it is a very good sign that we can have oil up, improving economy and not necessarily a hit to the stock market. we will see. still played out. put up oil.

there you go look at that few days ago, at $98, now at $110 was our top, here you can see moving to the downside. i think maria is right that is a factor in the markets. how about what else is going on? if you are a cynic, you will argue that what is going on in europe now a big factor, that the ecb is going to have the second part of that three-year plan here, that is going to be coming up. look at ing, the banks all rallied dramatically in the morning, some saying this crack associated with this whole business of added liquidity will make a difference. i want to show you the barrow metric pressure that would be the vix, wouldn't it? pressure on the stock market. there is a new low. look a few months here, see big changes here, the important thing is look at that, look how we are going up, 26 and 28. vix, guys, is a lot higher, just go out a couple of months here, excuse me crossing the shot, you will see people anticipating a little more volatile knit march and april there we go your weather report for the day. >> more volatility. >> absolutely. like all good weather reporters, you spent all that time, i still

don't know how hot it is going to be tomorrow. thank you, bob. >> everybody talks about it and nobody does anything. the same thing with the stocks and the weather. >> see you later. >> thank you, bob. look at the movers and shaken source far today. courtney reagan is at the cnbc realtime exchange with details. >> you guys looking very good down there on that new set it could be a fight to the finish, the dow, we will see, can low we close above 13,000? right now, as you can see, we are 26 points above that level. it has been kind of a flirt today. i don't know if we are actually gonna make t also, take a look at the s & p above 1370, another multiyear high. watch that as we go into the close. tech stocks, tech-heavy nasdaq looking pretty good right now, up about .4%. volatility index, up 2.4% on the day but off the highest levels of the day, about 19 earlier in the session. the ten-year note is below 2% at 1.925. now, let's take a look at the

sector sort, see where we sit when we are talking about the groups that we fool low here, financials, consumer discretionary leading the way, financials up almost 1%. if you can take a look at the other side, excuse my turn, see utilities and telecom are the laggards, we are green across the board in a relatively narrow trading session. just a couple mover, can't do the realtime exchange without talking about apple. shares trading at yet another all-time high and about $10 a share, give or take, from $500 billion market cap. bill and maria, back to you. >> thank you so much, court. courtney reagan with the latest there of course, as equities continue making gains today, oil prices taking a slight breather, even if above $108 a barrel. all along, traded treasuries making a strong move today, higher, let's talk about treasuries, what's behind the move there, rates move lower, today's closing bell exchange, sharon epperson at the nynex. jim, i kick this off with you,

talk about the move in elongated treasuries and the stock market higher, do you see a relationship there? >> the relationship obviously is normally if bonds run, stocks are down. today, i spent most of my day trying to figure out why the bonds are ral flying conjunction with the stocks, not 100% certain on, in your honor, every week that passes, we get new news, more liquidity being added. right now, u.s. probably represents the best place for that money to go and it's escaping europe and going into bonds and stocks and that's why we are seeing a rally in both. not sure how long it will last but why it is going higher today. >> what about oil, sharon? taking a bit of a breather today but who cares about a breather when you talk about $108 a barrel? still an issue, right? >> the damage has been done. >> the traders still talking about this level. >> tell us about gasoline. >> oil is going to take a breather now, but it it is a breather around 109, you know consumers are definitely feeling it, took a breather in the oil

price today, but prices at the pump are about 5 cents higher than they were on friday, so definitely hurting consumers at 370 a gallon on average for the national average, of course, here in new york, much higher than $4 in a lot of places. keep in mind, what we are seeing here around what a lot of analysts are now talking about, when is it really going to start to hurt the u.s. recovery? we are already hearing from jpmorgan that any 10% rise we see in the oil price will result in gdp growth being cut by a quarter of a percent. so we saw a 6% increase last weeks, on our way to seeing some pain impacting not on the economic recovery but oil use eventually as well. another thing that a lot of analysts look at is the copper-to-oil ratio. when you look at a one-month chart, you can see that we have seen that ratio declining over the recent sessions and that tells folks as well that this could be something that's gonna impede the global recovery and also market conditions. so they are watching that very carefully. the other thing in the energy space, not oil or gasoline, but

natural gas, extremely volatile today, settled below 250 for the march contract but that contract has expired and april is about 15 cents higher. so keep that in mind when you are looking at natural gas the next couple of sessions. >> jim, am i overthinking this or the treasuries and the energy markets telling us two different stories here, when you have got energy prices moving up as much as they are right now, do we have any business having long-term yields as low as they are right now? >> no is the answer to that question, however, yes if there's no place else for people to put their money, so much money in the system, it ends up there i think the next couple of weeks, it probably keeps its bid because the stock market looks precarious after having run as much as it has. after that, i don't want to tie up my ten-year money at 1.9, i think that's better things out there after the stocks pull back, i don't have any interest in being long bonds, you talk about the inflation implications of $100 whatever oil. >> gold held pretty steady

today, guys, still around 1775 an ounce, didn't break through the 1780 level for the close. still at high levels for gold as well. >> thanks so much. check in later. bill, with avenue market moving higher here and just telling you, looking at my screen here, goldman sachs and morgan stanley, take a guess at what the moves in those stocks have been in the last three months. you know money has been moving into these stocks, right? >> all the financials have done well. >> goldman sachs up in three months, 21%, morgan stanley up 27% in the three-month period. the money moves into financials today, a leadership group, just about 50 minutes left in the trading day we have got a mark that's is higher around the dow industrials up by 38 points. >> is this rally for real or the markets overbought now? our next guest explains why all signs appear to be pointing to a market top. that's straight ahead here. what is next for nyc euro next and the global story, now that the deal with deutsch borest has fallen apart, duncan niederauer is next. how should you be investing

in this environment? very savvy investors joining us, kkr's henry mcveigh, omega advisory chairman ceo lee cooperman give us their insights starting at 4 p.m. eastern time. watching cnbc first in business worldwide from the heart of the financial world on the new york stock exchange. we were just driving along,er comin' back from the lake,ng. and all of a sudden, ka-plam. it blindsided us. what is it? our college savings account.

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maybe we are going to do 13,000, rebounding from the session lows, they attempted to close above 13,000, would be for the first time since the spring of 2008. today's rise helped in part by that decline in oil snapped a seven-day winning streak today. right now the dow up 28 points, believe it on the open, the dow was down 100 points. here is a look at some of the biggest winners among the dow component that is hour, american

express, jpmorgan chase, intel, disney and chevron, all with decent gains right now. >> the market turning higher, we are keeping our eye on that dow, 13,000. can the market close above that key level? does it matter sore this rally running out of steam after money moved into equities year-to-date? one of our next guests says according to sentiment indicators, the market is overbought right now. >> joining us with that is sam stovall, chief investment strategist of standard and poor's, with us, a little birdie told me it is birthday boy, jim manly, chief equities analyst, how apropos to go to 13,000 on your birthday? >> i would have a birthday every day. >> we would wish you a happy birthday. >> remember ralph got it on his license plate when he predicted where the dow would go? yeah, it is good. i need a wider license plate for my prediction. >> every party needs a pooper. that is why we invited you?

predict the top of the market here? >> i think the market is overbought on a sentiment level but our feeling is we are probably going to see digestion of gains 3 to 5% but really, nothing more than that and actually, we celebrated the fact that we have ended up, closed out the correction that we experienced from april through october last friday and that basically is a good signal for the market. >> sam is that based on fundamentals? let's talk about what really is behind this move, earnings growth, what do the fundamentals look like for 2012? what are you expecting out of earnings? >> earnings will be second-half loaded, third quarter loaded. we are only likely to see a 2% gain in real operating results, maybe about a 6% advance in the third quarter but then a 16% gain in the fourth quarter as the economy starts to improve, but also, we have easier comparisons. >> john, what do you think? >> i think the old highs of line. sometimes don't listen to my

numbers, i this thank you we all have some sort of swanitis, all afraid of the black swan, afraid something would block us down. i think sam is absolutely right, the earnings will be tested this year and found to be successful, the test those come before the success. >> suspect that black swan theory right we see what is going on in europe, aren't we a little more prudent to expect that perhaps something really could take us off track here because of the european situation? >> sure, but run it backwards to see if it works in symmetry bang wards. if the market were going down, say it is just okay, going to get better, something is on the come. >> i know is just a number, 13,000, failed to close above it for a week, got closer to it, right now as we sit here, we are back below it again. at some point, would you think there is going to be disappointment that we are able to breach that number, right? wouldn't you think? >> if we didn't breach the number. i think that basically, a number like that psychological

threshold, a prior period of selling, basically people are -- it's resist taps it is like a rusty door, takes many attempts to break open the rusty door but sooner or later, it does. let me get your take on what brings us there look within the dow industrials, within the s & p 500 where is the leadership going to be in 2012. what do i need to be owning to get exposure to the 13,000? >> i think we are into a maturing phase for the cyclicals. we still have an overweight and discretionary but we like the industrials as well. we are warming up to the energy stocks so i would tend to say you don't want to be owning the defensive at this point. that was basically last year's trade as people worried about another shoe to fall in europe. i think right now, investors are basically saying, all right, we delayed that kind of pleasure last year this year, we are probably going to see a little bit better. >> what are you going to take here? >> i like technology. technology, i think, has the fundamentals. >> sector for all seasons,

really? >> sort of self-naming. it adds value, technology companies sell to corporations the only entities on the earth with any kind of money at this point in time, but not exclusively. they i like health care as well, i like staples, sort of a hedge, i realize that also we like energy as well. le >> what about dividend payers? they didn't do well in terms of performance. you want to own dividend payers? >> i don't want flat out dividends that don't give growth. growth important. >> we will leave it there. john, sam, good to see you guys. >> see you on the countdown in a few minutes, as we head toward the close, we are flirting with that 13,000 level on the dow. up next, warren buffett disclosing on cnbc that he ounce jpmorgan shares in his personal account. should you follow his lead and break down the chart and talking numbers at the banks. when will we see a pickup in trading volume maria asks me. nyse ceo duncan need eiederauers

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>> the new ceo saying based on the schedules thus far they expect the first quarter to witness moderate growth in the low to single digits, the stock at one point was up 90% year-to-date because of data they released in december sales. today's loss is pairing those gapes, the stocks still up around 56% year-to-date. guys, back over to you, which is a beautiful studio. >> you got to get down here at some point, thank you very much. less than an hour to go in our trading session. investors are watching shares of jpmorgan, especially after billionaire investor warren buffett revealed on "squawk box" this morning that he owns shares of jpmorgan in his own account. listen. >> i will let you in on a little secret, i own some shares of jpmorg jpmorgan. >> should you follow warren buffett and buy shares of jp morguen?

joining us, carter worth, market technician at oppenheimer, chief market technician and paul miller on the fundamental side covering the name for fbr capital markets. chart-wise, carter, and welcome, by the way, you get play with our chart here. >> is gorgeous. >> do you like it? >> the xhart gorgeous. let's look at a few example of why. last year and a half, from 50 to 25 just to wipe out. if you would look at the following, watch the lines that i'm gonna draw, i will put in what is known as a double bought tomorrow the stock comes down in october and then it retests that and you notice where the stock bottoms and by all accounts, that is a well defined message, which is to say when you revisit a past low and don't violate it, it is the beginning presumptively of a bottoming out process, the second thing that's happened is you have broken above a downed trend line and that is very, very important. >> paul, what about fundamentally? do you like jpmorgan chase at these levels? >> love jpmorgan chase at these

levels, one of our favorite names. we think the thing holding this back is vocal roll on the dodd frank rule. i think when that is accepted, it will take off. >> do you think chart-wise, the financials, strong this year, among the leadership will continue to lead this market higher? >> they are the one group that hasn't had as much appreciation as compared to others the last 12 months, plenty of headroom, lots to go. >> very good. gentlemen, paul, good to see you, let you play with this again next time you come around, if you are real good. maria? >> bill, thank you so much. we have got 30 minutes before the closeling bell on wall street. the dow jones up 23 points on the session. up next, joined by the boss here at the nyse euro next, duncan niederauer, talking about declininging volume, volcker rule. don't miss this exclusive interview next on the closing bell. stay with us.

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bob pisani on the floor of the stock exchange.

the oil down, germans approving the greek bailout and january pending home sales better than expected all adds up to a market slowly moving to the upside. notice we open usually on the downside this is a very typical pattern, after about 10:00, the market tends to move on the upside. that has been going on for quite a while, really since the start of the year. elsewhere, you take a look at the banks, well, we were down notably on most of the banks, including wells fargo, moved into positive territory, european bank lower on the day, those that trade here in the united states, the day wore on, like ing, deutsche bank, struggling to get into positive territory, a worse picture around 9:45 eastern time. some people are saying that that european central bank three-year loan facility, do if again on wednesday, like crack for those bank over in europe, a lot of other people staying has stablized the markets there. guys, back to you. >> bob, thank you so much. the dow jones average at 13,000 now, will the dow close above it? investor participation in this market has been low.

nyse average weekly volume on track, the lowest levels so far this year, down about 15% year-over-year from the same period one year ago. >> largest decline in 2012 happened last week, volume dropped 30%. what is going on? something you and very talked about quite a bit lately, let's ask the man himself, joining us in a cnbc exclusive to talk about that among many other things, very welcomed to welcome nyse euro next ceo dunk niederauer. how long have we been waiting to welcome you to the set? >> it is nice, a shared vision and have to finish the renovations around you and behind you, have as densely populated a floor we will get, with you guys in this beautiful set it is great. wellcome. >> talk about this renovation going on, periodically we can show you when we walk around the floor here that you are changing out some of the older posts putting new one in. >> going post by post, renovate a house, got people in the

garage, moving them here over time and then have as much of the equity activity from the agents and dmms and we can have in one room surrounding you guys all around you on the periphery here, if you think about it even though the volumes are down this year, doing more volume than we have ever done with 25% of the people that used to work on the floor five or ten years ago. the technology has clearly been embraced, too. >> duncan, did you get any push back from traders turning a major post, post 9, into a tv set? i mean, talk to us a little about the evolution of what has gone on here? i remember when i first got down here almost 20 years ago, you had almost 5,000 people in the new york stock exchange throughout five rooms. obviously, you have closed some rooms, got about 1,000 people. >> 1,000. >> people right here. so is that progress and technology? is that consolidation? what happened? >> it is a little bit of everything, right? it is certainly progress and technology, first and foremost, because obviously all the systems that you have got at each post now and you the hand-held devices that the

brokers carry enable them to do more, get more data than they ever could have gotten before. you will notice when there is a big ipo that will draw a crowd, the price discovery process still matters, great to include humans in that, but overall, remember that 5,000 to 1,000, didn't include when we have -- my belief from the beginning is if we could get this room right, could you do pretty much everything for u.s. equities that you needed to do in this room and have the am next guys in the back on the options floor. >> the drop in volume, so many circumstances going on simultaneously, getting ready perhaps for the volcker rule do away with prop trading, maybe there are some banks that are going to do away with trading, volume drop there volatility gone down. >> right. >> the way people trade stocks has changed dramatically in the last few years, buying etfs not individual stocks. that is part of it? >> so many factors, bill, that

is part of it the way i think about it, what lower volatility is a double-edged sword. from our point of view, lower volatility typically leads to lower volumes, for us, as we have seen recently with the market share you can the market has gone away from the public markets, more into the dark pools. so, we are now having at the end of the really the first two months of this year, roughly 35% of the stocks traded in the u.s. market no matter where they are listing, trading away from public exchanges, the other side of that, lower volatility means stability, market creeping up this year, a positive first couple of months, ipo calendar looks good. i think those deals come to market and i think february, you guys know better than i, first month in a while there might be inflows in mutual funds rather than outflows. so, maybe it is starting to turn. face it bill, everybody is turning their portfolios over less now, radio right? >> definitely a lot less risk, risk adversity. duncan, going to talk more about

volume and the deal that didn't happen, deutsche borse in our next segment, talk about the ipos, the great butter, what are you looking for in 2012, where are the deal gassing to come from, which sectors? >> from everywhere. you look at 2011, i don't think anybody would have bet going into the year that nyse would be number one globally, people think the u.s. isn't competitive going after global ips every year, there it has to be done in asia over time, they have an economy to grow and companies to take public but 13 ipos this year through the first couple of moment, similar to the pace we had last year. we have obviously got some big ones in the pipeline, all shapes and sizes, maria, all over the world, the pipeline is the strongest i have seen in five years. >> i remember china was a really big component for chinese companies is that still a major factor? latin america? >> a lot from latin marrying, starting to see some from eastern europe, a lot from asia, remember, a big pull back from china, some notoriety around

reverse mergers, i think that was a little bit throwing the baby without the bath water and only a handful of companies, we see a lot of chinese companies ready to come back to market too. >> any particular ipos you followed? >> facebook? >> i didn't say that. >> facebook? >> obviously, we would love to be their partner, looking forward to having the opportunity to earn their business that would be one we were very focused on. >> duncan, i'm going to step aside, i have work to do to get ready for another segment here, leave you two to talk about the business side of all of this as we head toward the close here. we are sitting just above that 13,000 level on the dow jones industrial average. >> up next, much more of our exclusive interview with duncan niederau niederauer, his growth strategy. straight ahead, the deal that did not happen with deutsche borse and what plan b is, why the nyse euro next glows from here globally. >> i hope you saw it on "squawk box" this morning, warren buffett telling cnbc that berkshire hathaway bought more shares in ibm.

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welcome back to the program, the closing bell here on the nyc floor, the deutsche borse deal did not happen what is next? where does the growth come from this year and beyond? we return to our exclusive conversation with nyse euro next ceo duncan niederauer. you tried to do a deal with deutsche borse. so, what happened? >> i'm glad we tried, it was a calculated risk, investors

backed us all the way, we tried, didn't get done. we quickly shift gears, what you will see us focus on in 2012, can't just be about austerity. can you tighten the belt? more veg lent on expenses? certainly, runt company more efficiently, i'm sure we will. i think is about how we deploy our capital, the half a billion plus buyback is under way, maintain the dividend, cleani i up the portfolio and see us invest in growth initiatives and maintain the growth initiatives we have been focused on. >> the beaut tit of the deutsche borse nyse deal, futures, derivatives, new products, now that that doesn't happen, do you have to acquire to ensure that you're going to be in those products? where does the growth come from, product-wise? >> i think if you think about it, maria, rounded out our portfolio, it scaled our derivatives business into other asset classes that we weren't inasmuch as i would like to be. it gave us a clearing solution and it gave us what i would call

collateral management solution. let's take those in order n our derivatives business, a terrific derivatives business august way to scale it some of the products the deal was going to get us into we will have to get into organically. secondly, if you think about clearing, we have already announced that we are finishing the build of our clearing house to be put on hold during the merger talks and thirdly, if you think about the collateral management business that is harder quite frankly too get into, the clear stream asset was a pretty interesting asset there. >> what do you see as the impact of europe? we are all talking about the euro zone troubles, the austerity you the debt crisis there. how is the euro zone issues impacted your business so far? >> so far, it has really had a muting affect on our business, right, because if you think about our derivatives business, focused largely on equity derivatives and short-term interest rate futures, both the areas, the volumes with way down, not a lot of volatility, confusion about the direction of interest rates in the short term, as we talked about when

bill was here, not a lot of equity volume right now. i think overarching that though, there's no confidence in the underlying economic recovery there, so the ipo calendar, compared to what i said about the u.s. calendar, not much ipos on a horizon, in a holding pattern in the foreseeable future. >> a holding pattern in europe, a big piece of the business have to make that up somewhere, where in the world do you look for to try to attract business to the nyse euro next? >> the business in asia continues to grow, business in south america continues to grow and our technologies business, where we get more and more into the host demanding services business that continues to grow. realistically that is where the growth has to come from. good news is the european businesses we have are good businesses, i just don't think i can count on them for a lot of growth in the near term. i love being exposed to those business bus we have to be realistic, 2012 it is going to be steady as she goes at best. >> what does the global economy look like to you right now? i know you are traveling a lot, you have got business coming out of asia, is that with where the

strength is? brazil seems to be on fire? >> a little less travel to brussels and frankfurt these days, we will go from there so big fan of eastern europe right now, our relationships in poland are going great, with the relationship we had with the exchange there, making some inroads in russia. south america is not just a brazil story. asia is not just a china story. i think the u.s. economy is doing better than we all think it s i'm an optimist about the global economy, as i said, i'm impressed what is going nonplaces like italy. i agree with what secretary geithner said earlier today but across europe it is tough right now. >> you had prime minister mario monti. >> impressive. great experiment, when you think about it, a group you have install forward specific amount of time saying do what you think has to be done, he is happy going back doing the right thing for the country, letting the

politicians take it back after his time is up. i don't think mario has any interest in running for office. it is a great experiment. >> he doesn't care about politics, which is great. >> which is why he is willing to make the tough decisions. >> what do you see in terms of sentiment, investors there, are they risk averse? i know you are not a market timer you got a good feel for these things. what does the market feel like to you? >> thanks for the compliment, the market feels to me right now, as i said earlier, no one is turning over like they used to. no one has conviction, nobody feels they are about to miss a big up move or down move. i think will be low volatility, low-volume environment until we see some catalyst that changes that. >> the catalyst would be what? nobody does it. >> always good to see you. >> wonderful to be here on the new set. >> many years of good success from here for both of us. >> duncan needer lawyerer, a short break, a market below 13,000 on the dow jones industrial averages, 15 minutes before the bell, the dow trying

to close above 13,000, fractionally higher. is the rally just getting started or running out of steam? kkr head of asset allocation, with us and leon cooperman here on the closing bell. i'm freaking out man. why? i thought jill was your soul mate. no, no it's her dad. the general's your soul mate? dude what? no, no, no. he's, he's on my back about providing for his little girl.

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mickey d's, the best performing dow component for all of 2011, now within a couple dollars of all-time high, $102.22. now b of a says they can sustain the premium valuation give the fast food giant's fundamentals now they are talking about the golden arches improved market share worldwide, continuing to gain market share, incred rebel, mcdonald's, a company that size, is still growing and gaining market share at this time. but the firm does warn that mcdonald's faces the risk of softer sales in europe, where the economy strug really is, so far, has managed to avoid that problem. technical analysts said value engine have a buy recommendation on mcdonald's, forecasting a one-year return of 5 and 12%. on the low end, they say you should buy below 101.38, which is where we are now and maybe sell if it got up to 112.54 quite a range this year.

mickey d shares ahead of rivals like yum brands,as you know, maria, very well, yum brands has brands like kfc, pizza hut and taco bell. your favorites. my favorites. take a short break, up next, bill you can the closing countdown, after bell, join us, analyst reaction to priceline.com's latest earnings release. tell you what the stock does once those numbers are out. but first, the major averages as we approach the close, the dow right at 13,000, going right above it and below it, well it closed above it. stay with us. we are back in two minutes time. watching the closing bell on cnbc, first in business worldwide. ♪ [ male announcer ] offering four distinct driving modes and lexus dynamic handling, the next generation of lexus will not be contained. the all-new 2013 lexus gs.

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when you open a new account or roll over an old 401(k). so who's in control now, mayans? inside five minutes before the close here, boy, little nail biting going on, a tug-of-war to see whether we can close above 13 tho 13,000 going to come down to the last few seconds. even with this nail biting here, we should point out the dow and s & p having the best february since 1998.

we have had pretty good gains. as a matter of fact, look at this we talk about the resilience of this market, bob c pisani pointing this out before, a gradual move back for various reasons, better economic data, german parliament okaying the greek bailout and then went sideways the rest of the day, we wonder whether we are going to finish at 13,000 you say, well, we are such in a late cycle move here, you have no idea how late cycle this is. look at these gains, this isn't the beginning of the year that we all focus on, this goes back to the lows of october 3rd, the three major averages, look at these gains here, the dow up 22% since october 3rd. the s & p up 24%, the win, the nasdaq, thank you, apple, up 27% in that time. but the biggest gainer of all of these major investments, the price up since october lows at

that time. gold has struggled, up 5, 6% at this point and the vix, fear indicator, as you can imagine, has gone lower, off the peak set october 3rd, now down 60% it the in that time. come far in a short time since october 3rd. the sectors and how they have been performing today here, the financials, now the leaders, early on, consumer discretionary, health care up there, another of john manually's favorites, s & p technology and materials are among the best gainers today, show you the bottom five here and that would be energy, which is lower, utility, industrials, the staples and the telecom servi services. sam stovall of s & p, you make that case, let from october 3rd, oil up 40% in that time, nasdaq up 27%. at some point, you would think things are going to have to cool off here. >> oh, absolutely, because you really don't want to see a parabolic mom. you don't want it to go straight up because then it does become unsustainable.

i would argue that we possibly are in the beginning of a knuble market, not the extension of the march 9th bull market in that scenario, bonds -- stocks will beat bonds, small caps will beat large caps, cyclical singh tors will outperform defenses. >> how much longer can oil move commensurate with the stock market? at some point, you would think a price of oil is going to start to be a hindrance to growth in the economy and earnings, right? >> absolutely, a rule of thumb for every $10 increase in the price of oil, it takes off about 20 basis points or one-fifth of 1% of real gdp, so it will have a depressing effect but our besleeve that you really have to see it above 120 to have a meaningful impact. we also believe that the higher prices are likely to be fleeting. >> wti 120? because brennan is $125 or thereabouts now.

do you like the financials at these level she is in. >> we have a market wait for the financials, usually the first year of a bull market, the worst sectors during the bear become the best sectors during the bull. right now the cyclical groups are the ones doing the best, i would stick more with discretionary and industrials but financials have their place. >> good to see you, sam, thanks for stopping by here, bob pisani, going to do 13,000 or not here? >> i think that issue was settled a wild ago, the answer is we are gonna do it. >> just not today? >> remember, the stock market will frustrate the greatest number of people. meantime, getting to the tail end of the earnings season, a bump of oil companies reporting, ten nent health care tomorrow, a big hospital company, generally hospitals are doing a little bit better recently. i know the volume suspect there price action is tremendous, every day after 10:00, the market lifted, since